Gold continues its extraordinary ascent, defying traditional expectations for the safe-haven metal as prices hold well above the $5,000/oz mark and analysts increasingly suggest the rally could extend further into 2026. According to a fresh note from RBC Capital Markets, the current bull run shows little sign of exhaustion and, under certain scenarios, could push bullion toward an eye-watering $7,100 per ounce by year-end.
Stronger-Than-Expected Momentum
The gold price has surged past key psychological levels, with the latest rally pace outstripping earlier forecasts. RBC cites a combination of macro drivers — including rising geopolitical risk, persistent trade tensions, and a softer US dollar — that have accelerated the timeline of gains. The bank notes gold has already registered multiple all-time highs this month alone, signaling sustained demand from both institutional and private investors.
Why the Rally Isn’t Slowing
Market strategists point to a blend of structural and cyclical factors underpinning gold’s strength:
Geopolitical and economic uncertainty: Ongoing global tensions and policy unpredictability have heightened appetite for haven assets. Central bank accumulation: Official sector demand remains robust, with many central banks continuing significant purchases to diversify reserves. ETF and private investor inflows: Exchange-traded gold holdings have rebounded, reflecting strong investor positioning and low confidence in alternative assets. Expectations for lower real yields: Markets pricing in future interest rate cuts tend to support non-yielding assets like gold.
This convergence of demand sources — from sovereign buyers to retail investors — has kept the rally intact even as prices hit record levels. Analysts note that traditional catalysts such as inflation hedging have now been joined by broader risk-aversion flows.
Bullish Forecasts Across the Street
RBC’s high-scenario projection extrapolates past performance and suggests that if the current pace of gains seen in 2025 repeats, gold could theoretically reach approximately $7,100/oz in 2026. While this is an aggressive outlook, it underscores how bullish sentiment has grown.
Other major institutions also see continued upside:
Morgan Stanley forecasts gold around $5,700/oz later this year, driven by central-bank demand and geopolitical risk. Société Générale projects a $6,000/oz outcome by year-end. Surveys of analysts point to potential highs above $7,100/oz, albeit as outlier forecasts.
These projections collectively highlight strong market conviction that the gold bull market has further to run.
Risk Factors and Market Conditions
Despite the bullish consensus, several risks could temper the climb:
A firmer US dollar or unexpected tightening of monetary policy could weaken bullion’s appeal. Easing geopolitical risks or declining inflation expectations might reduce safe-haven flows. Technical resistance levels, if tested and held, could slow momentum in the near term.
However, for now, the combination of central bank buying, ongoing uncertainty, and robust investor positioning continues to support gold’s upward trajectory.
What Investors Are Watching Next
Market participants will be closely tracking:
Federal Reserve policy signals, particularly any shift toward monetary easing. Geopolitical developments that could amplify risk aversion. Central bank reserve data, as continued accumulation bolsters long-term demand. ETF flows and retail positioning, which indicate investor sentiment breadth.