Analysts now believe China is buying far more gold than it publicly reports, and that this covert buying has become an important driver of the recent record gold rally.  Société Générale’s trade-data analysis suggests China’s actual purchases could be as high as ~250 tonnes in a year — many times the tiny monthly amounts the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) publicly reports.  Independent researchers (e.g., Plenum Research) estimate even larger unreported flows — they cite figures in the 1,000+ tonne range for some recent 12-month periods.  Global central-bank buying (including but not limited to China) is a major foundation of the rally; Chinese opaque flows make market supply/demand much harder to gauge.  Official PBoC monthly reported increases are small (single-digit tonnes), but on-the-ground trade/import/ETF flows and other institutional buyers (sovereign funds, state entities) point to much larger accumulation. 

Key pieces / reports to read (high-value)

Financial Times — “China’s secretive gold purchases help fuel record rally” (Leslie Hook) — the most detailed recent mainstream investigation summarising SocGen estimates, Plenum Research figures, and the market implications.  Reuters — reporting on the PBoC’s continued, modest official monthly increases that contrast with the market’s suspicion of much larger hidden flows.  World Gold Council / GoldHub market notes — useful background on Chinese wholesale demand, ETF flows and how central-bank buying appears in global balances. 

What the analysts base these claims on

Trade data gaps and import/export routing (gold moving through London, Switzerland, Dubai, Hong Kong, then into China or into vaults) that don’t map neatly into IMF/PBoC reported reserve changes.  Discrepancies between domestic market activity (SHFE, SGE), ETF flows and official reserve disclosures — implying non-PBoC buyers (state funds, military, SOEs, state warehouses) are accumulating.  Estimations by banks and specialised researchers (SocGen, Plenum Research) that use import/processing/market flows to infer “hidden” purchases. 

Implications for investors & markets

The rally may be structurally supported (not purely speculative) if large, persistent state demand exists.  Price volatility can increase because the hidden flows add an opaque, lumpy source of demand that’s hard for traders to model.  Geopolitically, the moves are consistent with de-dollarisation and building reserve diversification — which can have broader FX and reserves implications.