Gold touched a new record high just above $3,670/oz earlier in the week. After that high, it entered a consolidation/correction phase, as traders take profits and assess further catalysts. USD weakness, dovish expectations from the Fed, soft economic data (especially labour & inflation) and geopolitical risk remain key tailwinds.
Technical Analysis
Here’s how things look from a charting standpoint:
Indicator / Pattern
Status & Implication
RSI (daily)
Still above 70 → overbought territory. Suggests that while bullish momentum is strong, there is scope for a pull-back or sideways action.
Ascending channel / regression channel
Gold has been finding support around the mid-line of this ascending structure. The upper bound points toward resistance in the $3,795–$3,800 zone.
Key support levels
– ~$3,600 — aligns with mid-channel support. – $3,500-$3,480 — a static support area plus near the 20-day simple moving average.
Key resistance levels
Immediate resistance at ~$3,700 (round number). Higher upside resistance near $3,795-$3,800 (upper channel line).
Overbought / profit-taking risks
Given overbought conditions, sharp upside from here is tempered. Traders may look for pullbacks or retests of support to build entries.
Fundamental / Macro Drivers
These are the major undercurrents likely to shape Gold’s near-term behaviour:
Federal Reserve policy decisions are front and centre. The upcoming FOMC meeting, rate decision, and the updated “dot plot” will likely be a big driver. Markets seem to be pricing in a ~25 basis-point cut with some chance of more. US economic data: Softness in labour market metrics, inflation cooling or staying sticky — both have different effects. Inflation above expectations tends to weigh on Gold (via USD strength / rising real yields), while weak data tends to help Gold via lower rate expectations. US Dollar & yields: A weak USD and falling or stable real yields favor Gold. A rebound in yields (especially nominal minus inflation expectations) or a strong USD could pressure Gold. Geopolitical risk & safe-haven demand still provide tailwinds. When risk off surfaces, Gold tends to benefit.
Weekly Forecast: What to Watch & Likely Scenarios
Based on the technicals + macro, here are plausible paths for Gold this week / near term:
Fundamental / Macro Drivers
These are the major undercurrents likely to shape Gold’s near-term behaviour:
Federal Reserve policy decisions are front and centre. The upcoming FOMC meeting, rate decision, and the updated “dot plot” will likely be a big driver. Markets seem to be pricing in a ~25 basis-point cut with some chance of more. US economic data: Softness in labour market metrics, inflation cooling or staying sticky — both have different effects. Inflation above expectations tends to weigh on Gold (via USD strength / rising real yields), while weak data tends to help Gold via lower rate expectations. US Dollar & yields: A weak USD and falling or stable real yields favor Gold. A rebound in yields (especially nominal minus inflation expectations) or a strong USD could pressure Gold. Geopolitical risk & safe-haven demand still provide tailwinds. When risk off surfaces, Gold tends to benefit.
Weekly Forecast: What to Watch & Likely Scenarios
Based on the technicals + macro, here are plausible paths for Gold this week / near term:
Key Levels to Watch
Support: ~$3,600; ~$3,500-$3,480 (SMA zones and previous support clusters). Resistance: ~$3,700; ~$3,795-$3,800 (upper channel). Sentiment / Overbought Indicators: RSI, MACD divergences, also watching volume (are rallies being supported by volume or thin).
Verdict: Bulls Retain Control, but Caution Required
Overall, the bullish bias remains intact. Gold’s recent record high, combined with dovish expectations and macro risks, means upside remains a real possibility. However, the overbought technicals and potential for profit-taking or negative surprises (especially from US data / Fed) suggest that gains might come in fits and starts rather than in a straight line.
If I had to pick one scenario as most probable: mild correction or consolidation toward $3,600, followed by an attempt to retest resistance toward $3,700-$3,800, assuming no major negative shock.
