Gold’s relentless rally shows no signs of slowing as prices carved out fresh all-time highs, buoyed by dovish expectations ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The metal’s momentum underscores the market’s conviction that U.S. monetary policy is set to pivot toward further easing, with traders increasingly betting on a dovish tone from the central bank.
Spot gold surged past its previous record, extending a months-long rally driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, declining Treasury yields, and robust demand from central banks and investors seeking hedges against both inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Futures contracts tracked the move, with open interest climbing as speculative positioning leaned heavily to the long side.
The upcoming FOMC meeting is pivotal. Market participants widely expect the Federal Reserve to maintain rates on hold, but the focus will fall squarely on Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks and the updated dot plot. With recent U.S. economic data showing signs of cooling in labor markets and consumption, traders are pricing in accelerated odds of rate cuts later this year. Any confirmation that the Fed is leaning dovish could reinforce the bullish case for gold, potentially opening the door for a sustained rally beyond the current record levels.
Technically, the yellow metal shows strong upward momentum, with the breakout above prior highs triggering a wave of stop orders and momentum buying. Immediate resistance is now psychological, with traders eyeing round-number milestones, while support sits near the breakout zone, where buyers are likely to defend dips.
From a macro perspective, the confluence of falling real yields, continued geopolitical flashpoints, and a global shift in reserve diversification all provide a fertile backdrop for higher gold prices. In particular, central banks in emerging markets have been steady buyers, helping to underpin the structural bull case.
As the FOMC looms, the key question is whether Powell will validate the market’s dovish positioning or attempt to push back against the pace of easing bets. Either way, gold appears well-positioned, with its role as a safe-haven and policy hedge reinforcing the momentum into uncharted territory.